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The recent US and Israeli military offensive against Iran, followed by Iran's response, has led to the bombing of military bases in allied countries, including a British base in Cyprus. The UK has agreed to let the US use its bases for "defensive" attacks, as announced last Sunday by Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

 

Meanwhile, the Spanish government has denied any plan to send military support to operations against Iran, prompting the United States to relocate aircraft and ships from the Rota base, in the Cádiz province, and the Morón base in Seville. Spain's NATO membership and its strategic position, with access to the Mediterranean and Atlantic, could still mark it as a secondary target.

 

In a potential Third World War, a region's geographical, political, and strategic traits determine its risk level. Provinces vital to national operations, such as Madrid and Barcelona, face the highest threat. Industrial areas and those with major military presence, like the Costa del Sol, Costa Brava, and Zaragoza, are also vulnerable.

 

Safer options lie in remote locations with rugged terrain and low populations. Regions including the Aragonese Pyrenees, Sierra Nevada, northern León, Sierra de Gredos, Galicia, and the Basque Country stand out. Mountains and forests limit the impact of air strikes and nuclear attacks, while abundant natural resources support survival during shortages of food and water.

 

Islands offer further protection. The Canary Islands and Balearic Islands benefit from natural isolation, making them low-priority targets if resources are managed effectively.

 

This analysis arrives as Middle East airspace closures strand travellers, complicating flights and refunds across Spain. With borders potentially closing and threats like drone attacks looming, these factors highlight Spain's varied risk profile.