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The new year doesn't seem to be bringing a new direction to the real estate market in Spain. After closing 2025 with double-digit increases, housing prices are facing a 2026 during which all forecasts continue to point upwards, this time with increases exceeding 6%.

 

Thankfully, experts are predicting more moderate price increases that what we experienced across the country last year. However, property costs will still be well above 2026 inflation forecasts and, perhaps more importantly, the rise in household incomes, despite some recent good news about minium wage hikes.

 

According to Idealista, the price of second-hand homes rose by 16.2% in the last three months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This increase, the largest since the housing bubble burst, reached a new all-time high of €2,639 per square metre, equivalent to approximately €198,000 for a 75-square-metre apartment.

 

"There is a housing shortage and the numbers are clear. After the 2008 crisis, we haven't been able to recover our production capacity, so we're carrying a huge burden of underproduction," commented Francisco Iñareta, spokesperson for the Idealista, regarding these figures.

 

The data from the real estate portal reflects the advertised sale prices of apartments, which may differ from what buyers actually pay. However, pending the release of the most recent data, the latest official statistics from the Ministry of Housing also point to record levels, with an average appraised value of €2,153 per square metre in the third quarter.

 

Rather frighteningly, this surpasses the previous peak of €2,101 per square metre in early 2008. There has also been a substantial hike of 12.1% year-on-year since 2005.

 

"I believe that this double-digit increase last year will mark a milestone, a peak that will probably not be repeated in 2026," Raymond Torres, director of Economic Analysis at Funcas, predicted, acknowledging that "housing prices are no longer within reach of most of the middle class."

 

Further increases are expected from these levels by 2026. Among the forecasts from leading economic and real estate market experts, the most optimistic are those from Bankinter and CaixaBank Research, which predict a 6% and 6.3% rise in housing prices, respectively, for the new year. Similarly, BBVA Research forecasts a 7% increase. In all three cases, these are slightly smaller jumps than those recorded in 2025, although they still triple the inflation forecasts of around 2.1%.

 

Forecasts are somewhat more pessimistic among real estate portals and appraisal companies. Pisos.com expects the price of resale homes to rise by an average of 7.8% and rents to increase by 6.8%, while Tecnitasa predicts an 8% rise in the price of used apartments and a 10% increase in new-build apartments. Sociedad de Tasación forecasts an 8.9% increase for the latter, and Tinsa considers an overall range of between 5% and 10%.

 

There is a general consensus that what is driving prices up is the mismatch between the scarcity of supply and the high demand for housing. The population of Spain has grown by three million inhabitants since 2019, and yet housing construction has only met half of the demand generated each year.

 

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Housing, between January and September 2025, 100,327 building permits were granted for the construction of new apartments, 5.6% more than in 2024.

 

Forecasts indicate that the construction sector will continue to recover – CaixaBank estimates 150,000 permits for 2026, some 10,000 more than projected for 2025 – but at a slow pace and nowhere near the 600,000 housing deficit that the Bank of Spain estimates currently exists to meet the demand for the number of households created in recent years.

 

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