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To say it’s been an unsettled and unpredictable start to the year is something of an understatement. Spain welcomed 2026 with a barrage of storms that councils are still working to recover from, and just when we think it’s time to dust off the flip-flops, we’re told more rain and wind are on the way. At the moment, we seem to be experiencing four seasons in one week. But is the weather ever going to settle down and if so, when?

 

Looking ahead, it seems the mixed conditions aren’t disappearing overnight, but there is a clearer picture forming for the months ahead. Spain is expected to see higher than average temperatures between May and July, according to the State Meteorological Agency, Aemet, although some areas will also see more rain than usual.

 

The long-view forecast, which was shared on Monday May 4, covers the three-month period that bridges late spring and early summer. According to Aemet, much of the country is likely to experience warmer conditions overall, particularly in the Cantabrian region and along the Mediterranean coast.

 

There’s around a 60% chance that temperatures in those areas will sit above the seasonal average. Elsewhere across mainland Spain, that probability drops slightly to 50%, and in the Canary Islands it stands at around 40%.

 

When it comes to rainfall, things are a little less certain. Aemet explained that forecasting rain over longer periods comes with a higher level of uncertainty, so the outlook is less clear-cut. That said, there is a 40% chance of above-average rainfall in the northeast and eastern parts of the country, as well as in both the Balearic and Canary Islands. For the rest of mainland Spain, no strong trend has been identified yet.

 

The agency also pointed out that “normal” in this context refers to the average values recorded between 1991 and 2020, so it doesn’t mean steady or predictable day-to-day weather. Even within a warmer than usual period, there can still be cooler spells along with hotter bursts, so it’s not quite time to pack away the layers just yet.

 

For now, it looks like Spain’s run of unpredictable weather could continue a little longer, just with a warmer overall feel as we move towards summer.