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With the conflict escalating in Iran and oil markets reacting sharply, a lot of drivers in Spain are asking the same question right now: should I fill up before prices go up?

 

Brent crude, the European benchmark for oil pricing, has already surged by more than 7%, hitting peaks of over 10% and pushing close to $80 a barrel amid growing fears over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Fuel prices in Spain have already risen by around five cents per litre so far this year, tracking a rise in oil prices that had accumulated nearly 19% since January 1. If the upward trend continues, the OCU, Spain's main consumer watchdog, estimates that pump prices could climb by a further eight to ten cents per litre in the coming weeks.

 

The reason drivers haven't felt the full impact yet is that the fuel on sale today was bought in advance by the filling stations, and the final price at the pump depends on a range of factors beyond just the crude oil price, including wholesale fuel prices across European markets, logistical costs and taxes.

 

That process means it can take up to two weeks for a rise in oil prices to show up at the forecourt.

 

Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo confirmed that the government is keeping a close eye on price movements to guard against any speculative activity, although he cautioned that it's still too early to gauge the true scale of the impact.

 

The good news, if you can call it that, is that only 5% of Spain's oil imports and 2% of its gas imports actually pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which may limit the direct impact on Spanish pockets somewhat.

 

For a really significant hit to consumers' wallets, analysts say Brent crude would need to rise by a further $15 to $20 per barrel from its current level, which closed on Friday at $72.48.

 

However, the situation took a sharply political turn on Wednesday when US President Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain following the Spanish government's refusal to allow the United States to use the jointly operated Rota and Morón air bases for operations linked to the conflict with Iran.

 

Trump called Spain "a terrible partner" within NATO and said he had personally instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to act.

 

"We're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump said at a White House meeting.

 

Whether that threat translates into anything concrete remains to be seen, but combined with rising oil prices and an increasingly volatile situation in the Middle East, the outlook for Spanish fuel prices is looking considerably less certain than it did just a few weeks ago.

 

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Image: Pixabay/andreas160578