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The Region of Murcia is heading into a warmer-than-average spring, although early forecasts suggest the temperatures could dip just in time for Easter.

 

According to the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), there’s a 60% to 70% probability of a “warm third” between March and May, meaning temperatures are likely to sit above seasonal averages. Regional Aemet meteorologist Juan Esteban Palenzuela said the coming months are expected to continue the trend of milder conditions.

 

However, the outlook changes slightly for Holy Week, which runs from March 30 to April 5 this year. During that period, temperatures are expected to fall between 1 and 3°C below normal, although Mr Palenzuela cautioned that “it’s still too early to know” the finer details.

 

Rainfall remains even less certain. While no clear trend has been identified, the meteorologist noted there is “a lot of uncertainty” around precipitation levels, particularly as the dates approach.

 

For the week leading up to Easter, from March 23 to 29, temperatures are also expected to be slightly below average, with rainfall potentially up to 10mm above normal.

 

The seasonal outlook follows an unusual winter across the Region of Murcia. Average temperatures reached 10.7°C, around 1.3°C above normal, making it the sixth warmest winter in the past 65 years.

 

“Warm winters are now a trend,” Mr Palenzuela explained, pointing out that the last notably cold winters were in 2017 and 2018.

 

Despite the mild temperatures, it was also an exceptionally wet season. The Region recorded an average of 170 litres per square metre, ranking it as the fourth wettest winter in more than six decades. Rainfall patterns, however, were far from consistent.

 

“October was wet, November extremely dry, December and January very wet, February wet, and March very wet,” Mr Palenzuela said.

 

With March already running 70% wetter than usual halfway through the month, it has effectively become “a very wet month,” adding to an already rain-heavy hydrological year.